Last Week in Collapse: July 2-8, 2023
source: https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/14uxe7c/last_week_in_collapse_july_28_2023/
or https://substack.com/@lastweekincollapse
We’ve crossed the tipping points—and the fall is just beginning. Consequences are a dangerous thing.
Last Week in Collapse: July 2-8, 2023
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter bringing together some of the most important, timely, useful, depressing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see moments in Collapse.
This is the 80th newsletter. You can find the June 25-July 1 edition here if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also on Substack if you want them sent to your email inbox every Sunday.
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Mother Earth has a terrible fever, and the summer is still young. Our planet broke its all-time global average temperature record on Monday (17.01 °C, or 62.6 °F). On Tuesday, we broke another record, at 17.18 °C, and then again on Thursday, at 17.23 °C. That night, Africa hit its all-time hottest night temperature in Algeria—39.6 °C (103 °F).
Montevideo’s (population: 1.77M) drinking water reservoirs are down to 1.8% capacity, and the people are unhappy. The city had begun mixing salt-water with their drinking water to extend the supply, but now officials say there’s about a week’s worth of water left. Emergency wells are being drilled deep into the earth and bottled water is being trucked in. Uruguay’s constitution guarantees free water as a right—but the people are finding out the limits of a promise. Most people will face water shortages—by 2050, this article claims. No doubt it will be much sooner.
When rivers dry up, their salinity and pollution often increases, and the oxygen drops—with devastating consequences. Rivers in Iraq are disappearing, killing the freshwater fish that used to call these rivers home. Drought, water mismanagement, and decades of War and corruption have collapsed the riparian ecosystem, and the economy that it sustained. Things will never go back to the way they were.
After the economies collapse comes extremist violence, according to the UN and researchers in the Sahel. People are hungry for food, and for a purpose; many will try to fulfill both needs by joining armed groups. “When I got there, all they gave me was a gun,” said one militant who joined a group of fighters years ago. “They told me that if I wanted to eat, I’d have to go and fight.” As the rest of the world suffers economic collapse over the next decade, we may witness the emergence of endless, overlapping insurgencies—in fact, they might be here already.
Peter Turchin, the godfather of cliodynamics, believes the 2020s—and the 2030s, 2040s, and so on—will be marked by cycles of violence and discord. He writes: “Popular immiseration together with elite overproduction is an explosive combination…Immiserated masses generate raw energy, while a cadre of counter-elites provides an organization to channel the energy against the ruling class.” Elite overproduction, human egotism, social media, and economic difficulties have brought society to a place where too many are set up to fall down. And they might bring the whole house down with them.
Brace for impact—because El Niño is gonna hit hard this year, and last until next year. As a result, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is predicting with near certainty that the next five years will, overall, be the hottest on record. El Niño is a significant driver towards global warming, and drought & flooding in certain areas. A recent study examines historic El Niño patterns and concluded that system changes can happen more rapidly than anticipated.
At least 45% of tap water in the US has PFAS chemicals, according to a grim study. What can be done about it? Germany has called on Poland to stop polluting the Oder River they both share. Last summer, chemicals from corporations in Poland were alleged to have caused a large-scale fish dieoff.
Simultaneous crop dieoff may lie ahead too. This study from Nature Communications suggests that a series of climate events—droughts, floods, atmospheric waves, etc.—could synchronize and wipe out harvests across the world. These intense “breadbasket failures” could imperil the world food supply—and produce War.
Officials are worried about the wildfire season ahead in Canada, where records have been smashed, and 3+ months of burning remain. The UK is planning to abandon its climate & nature pledge, a roughly $15B USD commitment to protect forests, build renewable energy projects, and other such pursuits.
The Netherlands felt its strongest storm on record. Flooding in Spain and in China and in Mongolia. New temperature records across Canada. Antarctic ocean currents slowing down.
China is applying reflective covers to glaciers in an attempt to prolong their life. Unfortunately there are downstream consequences: chemicals and particles may damage water quality. But the alternative ain’t great either: uncontrolled glacial melt causes glacial lake flooding and other consequences.
Türkiye’s glaciers are also “at risk of extinction”. I reckon it’s a sure thing at this point, the diagnosis is terminal. They can only melt once, but the worst is yet to come. Without glaciers to reflect heat rays back, the earth will heat even faster and the risk of wildfires will rise.
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The Civil War in Sudan has turned 3 months old, and it is expected to last much longer. The insurgent RSF is reportedly in control of most of Khartoum, while the government forces dominate the skies. As many as 5,000 people may have been killed, and over 2.5M displaced, including 600,000 who have fled Sudan altogether. In Lebanon, armed forces have promptly deported thousands of Syrians since April, and appear likely to continue. Lebanon hosts more refugees per capita than any other country in the world.
Over 1,000 Israeli soldiers began military operations in Jenin, a city & refugee camp in the occupied West Bank. The IDF used armored bulldozers, snipers and air strikes against what they called a “terrorist stronghold,” while Palestinians used explosive mines, burning tires, guns, mosque loudspeakers, and thrown stones. At least 8 Palestinians were killed, and dozens wounded. It was the largest Israeli operation in the West Bank in years, dwarfing the deadly raid two weeks ago.
It has now been 501 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion began. A Russian strike in the east killed 8 and wounded 13. Ukrainian intelligence suggested that Russia would create an explosion inside the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on July 5, but it hasn’t happened yet. The IAEA denied Ukraine’s claims that the cooling pond had been mined. Several employees working at the power plant have been allowed to leave. Experts are incredibly worried about the damage from a potential attack against the plant. And now the U.S. is sending cluster bombs to Ukraine—a controversial weapon banned by most states.
Mass mobilization, coupled with a mass exodus of Russians has resulted in an allegedly crumbling economy in Russia, and structural conditions unfavorable to their War. In Ukraine, the economy isn’t doing great either, and they are drafting men to fight too, but they say conscription will end after the War is over—whenever that is. Meanwhile, the conglomerate holding company Unilever (responsible for the brands Ben & Jerry’s, AXE, Lipton, Q-tips, among others) has been branded an “international sponsor of war” by Ukraine’s government. Moldova’s economy is also reportedly in bad shape because of the War.
General Khalifa Haftar, the strong-man of eastern Libya, is warning the western half to share their oil revenues more generously—or his armed forces will intercede. Haftar gave a deadline of about 8 weeks for their compliance.
Following several nights of clashes between sub-Saharan migrants and local Tunisian citizens, a Tunisian man was killed. Kosovo and Serbia continue their posturing, an endless series of “will they or won’t they?” that has alarmed European politicians pushing for peace.
The final Collapse of the Haitian state has resulted in several undeclared gang Wars that continue to devastate the nation. This shocking account tracks life—and death—in Haiti’s capital over the course of one terrifying week. Murders, rapes, terrorism. Heaps of garbage, power outages that last indefinitely, and the utter absence of state services, except for the few that have been co-opted by the warlords. Such as tax collection and the control of goods. The shanty towns of the city have created countless insurgents, weaponized from the slums by wealthier mobsters to wage war against whoever opposes them. Be warned: some of the images in that article are haunting.
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France’s riots have quieted down, and cost over $1B USD. Global commodity prices are sinking and I don’t even know what to think about that. An energy company CEO said that oil & gas are a necessary part of the future. McKinsey & Company claims that there is going to be a minerals supply shortage if the green transition accelerates.
Large-scale power outages temporarily cut Kazakhstan’s oil production by 21%. Saudi and Russia may also be colluding to cut supply and spike prices. Meanwhile, China is slowing down exports of two elements used to make semiconductors and computer parts. And allegedly China is in silent default of a $1T debt to American investors…
The world’s poorer countries are stuck playing a game of Hot Debt Potato, and some nations are gonna get burnt when the debt bomb goes off. Pakistan and Egypt might be the first ones to go. What will be the result: IMF wizardry and debt restructuring, bedlam in the streets, political revolution, rich countries forgiving the debt again, or something else? I’m afraid we’re going to find out.
Some economists are warning (some are always warning) of a coming economic crash that will devastate pretty much everyone. The number of American companies on the edge of insolvency is at a 50-year high, and the cost of living has ballooned past affordable limits. Bubbles have grown too big to deflate calmly. Many people say the recession has been here for months and this is just the beginning.
The deep sea is open for business—mining, that is. Applications are beginning to mine the “Area” beyond national EEZ borders, mostly for metals underneath the ocean floor. Apart from damaging these remote ecosystems, this will also reduce the ocean’s ability to act as a carbon sink. It will also inevitably pollute the deep seas. But at least some shareholders will make a lot of money.
Bread prices in Nigeria are rising faster than people can earn the dough to buy. Economists still predict Nigerian growth ahead, but the country’s corruption, northern insurgency, and mounting debt crisis is looming larger than ever. Plus, petrol prices are expensive.
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The vagus nerve is the longest nerve in the autonomic nervous system. Medical research indicates that COVID may inflame the vague nerve, leading to damage of all sorts. Moderna signed a deal to make mRNA drugs inside China, for Chinese people.
COVID significantly raises your chances for Alzheimers disease if you’re an old person. It can also result in brain fog, cardiovascular problems, digestive issues, and a lot of other unpleasant effects like memory issues.
After a couple weeks of casually forgetting to bring a mask with me, I caught a vicious and debilitating respiratory illness late last week. Fortunately, I was able to take the week off and mostly self-quarantine. I tested negative for COVID several times but for me this was experientially worse than COVID—except for the potential lasting effects of COVID. But I could have just as easily contracted COVID again instead of, or in addition to, this sickness. Nobody at the doctor’s office had any PPE on, even though it is literally a place where sick strangers come during a contagious pandemic. The situation is completely hopeless. I re-learned my lesson the hard way—but how long until I un-learn it again? Please wear a mask.
Another virus is moving silently across Europe: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. This virus is primarily spread by ticks, although it is also transmissible between humans. It has a CFR of 10-40%. There have been over 100 cases confirmed this year in Europe.
H5N1, bird flu, has been responsible for 20 cat infections in Poland, several dogs in Italy, and a state in Brazil responsible for 35% of Brazil’s poultry production. Some experts think avian flu may already be endemic, which could mean that we’re just waiting out the time until a more harmful mutation emerges…
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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week (there were so many) suggest:
-We are long passed the point of no return, and many of these comments fact-check the notion that we are somehow gonna dodge this bullet.
-The first-world is on borrowed time, judging by the ultra-pessimistic comments in this thread, which asks how much time we’ve got left. A lot of people seem to think we have just a few years before this all blows up in our faces.
-Too many people just don’t have time and/or the mental bandwidth to learn about Collapse. Maybe that’s that this comment’s attached file—a 57-page primer to the apocalypse. I actually haven’t read the document yet, which I think is one writer’s summary of our dreadful predicament. It looks like it’s been well-received.
-”The time is here, the moment is now,” says one weekly observation from Texas. Heat, guns, fireworks, and the dawning realization of present Collapse.
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source: https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/14uxe7c/last_week_in_collapse_july_28_2023/
